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Political Risk

Democrats Increasingly Concerned With Biden As Presidential Candidate

Democrats have voiced their support for President Biden since Thursday’s much-commented debate with Republican candidate Trump. But with polls shifting since the debate and increased concern re the age of the President, cracks are beginning to appear within Democratic ranks. Texan lawmaker Doggett is the first to come out openly and say that Biden should step aside, which may allow other Democrats to voice their concerns.

  • Biden is scheduled to meet democratic governors today to reassure the party but he may also face pressure to step down. He will also be interviewed by ABC News on Friday and continue campaigning this week.
  • Doggett politely said that Biden should step aside as the debate failed to emphasise his achievements and the election was too important to risk. Californian Democrat Pelosi has said that it is “legitimate” to question Biden’s capabilities and Maryland’s Raskin observed that the debate had created a “difficult situation”. Biden is blaming his debate performance on jet lag.
  • Voters increasingly believe that Biden is too old for the position with 72% voicing this in Sunday’s CBS News/YouGov poll up 7pp with 49% for Trump. 45% of registered Democrats in the survey think Biden should step down.
  • PredictIt pricing has also shifted sharply since last week with the chance of Biden winning the November election halving to 24% between June 24 and July 3, while Vice President Harris has risen 26pp to exceed him at 30%. Both are well behind Trump on 58% up 6pp since June 24.
  • The NY Times has also reported that Biden works short hours and has an afternoon sleep. It quoted officials observing times that he has found meetings challenging.
  • The Democrat candidate will be confirmed at the party’s convention starting August 19 but Bloomberg is reporting that it could occur sooner on July 21.
% US presidential candidate winning

Source: MNI - Market News/PredictIt

First Sitting Democrat Lawmaker Calls On Biden To Withdraw

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) has become the first sitting Democratic Party lawmaker to openly call for President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, following his weak debate performance.

  • Doggett said in a statement: "I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to [improve Biden's underperformance]. It did not. Instead of reassuring voters, the President failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trump's many lies.
  • "Too much is at stake to risk a Trump victory - too great a risk to assume that what could not be turned around in a year, what was not turned around in the debate, can be turned around now.
  • "I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same....I am hopeful that he will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw. I respectfully call on him to do so.”
  • Doggett's statement comes shortly after an MSNBC interview by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) in which she appeared to hint that Biden should withdraw. Until now, calls for Biden's withdrawal have remained confined to the media and former officials. Doggett's statement could precipitate a wave of similar calls, which would be far more difficult for the White House to ignore.
  • We noteda short time ago that Biden is set to meet with Democratic Party governors tomorrow, who likely have the most weight to influence Biden's decision.

President Biden To Deliver Remarks On 'Extreme Weather' Shortly

US President Joe Biden is shortly due to deliver remarks on extreme weather at the Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. Livestream

  • The White House noted in a fact sheet outlining new measures: "In addition to posing direct threats to lives and livelihoods, major weather events – which are becoming increasingly extreme due to the climate crisis – have had significant economic impacts: last year’s record 28 individual billion-dollar extreme weather and climate disasters caused more than $90 billion in aggregate damage."
  • The measures, including, "nearly USD$1 billion dollars in awards for 656 projects across the country to help communities protect against disasters and natural hazards, including extreme heat, storms, and flooding," can be found in full here.
  • Biden's remarks will also be closely scrutinised for any additional signs of the cognitive issues Biden experienced during the first presidential debate last Thursday.

Biden To Meet With Democratic Party Governors Tomorrow

President Biden will meet with Democratic Party governors tomorrow. The meeting could offer a firmer indication of Biden's strategy in light of his underwhelming debate performance on Thursday.

  • Calls from the liberal media persist for Biden to step aside and allow an open Democratic Party Convention in August to select a new nominee. As Biden comprehensively won the Democratic Party primaries, he would have to voluntarily step aside to release delegates at the convention. The baseline view is that this remains unlikely, with the Biden camp committed to his re-election campaign. CBS notes the meeting is designed to "shore up support."
  • Names floated as potential Biden replacements include Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL), and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY).
  • Of those, Whitmer appears the logical choice, despite buzz around Newsom. She has won re-election in a Midwest state, crucial as the Rust Belt is the primary pathway for Democrats to retain the White House. Politico reported yesterday that Whitmer warned the Biden campaign that Michigan, "in the wake of the debate, was no longer winnable for Biden."
  • Notably, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told MSNBC today: "I think it's a legitimate question to say is this an episode or is this a condition... It's going to be up to Joe Biden to do what he thinks... I'm not a doctor, I can't say what happens 3,4 years down the road..."
  • Her comments could be interpreted as a subtle message for Biden to step aside, as she did in 2022.

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