Bloomberg reports that House Speaker Johnson says an agreement has been reached on government funding that will prevent a government shutdown that would have otheriwse started midnight tonight. The House will vote on the funding bill today. 

For further colour ahead, see here and here, from the MNI political risk team. 

Bloomberg reports that US allies say Biden’s strategy of slow-walking key weapons amid fears of a nuclear escalation with Russia cost Ukraine a chance of victory. Bloomberg writes: “Regardless of what Biden does in his final weeks, [officials in Ukraine and several allied capitals] said, Ukraine is heading toward a bitter settlement in which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may have to leave swathes of territory in limbo in exchange for security guarantees that fall short of the NATO membership he’s pleaded for.”

• Former UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in an interview, “[Biden’s] heart was undoubtedly in the right place — he understood the importance of standing with Ukraine against Russian aggression. “However, his approach was often too cautious and too hesitant, holding back on delivering the decisive support needed to tip the balance.”
• A new Gallup survey shows that Americans favour a quick end to the war in Ukraine, with Republicans backing less support for Kyiv and Democrats favouring a continuation of the current level of support.
• Gallup notes that fifty percent of respondents want to reach, “a quick end to the conflict, even if that means Ukraine does not recover all of its land. This marks a shift from prior readings, when the majority of Americans backed a fight for total victory.”

Figure 1: “How do you feel about the next 4 years with Donald Trump as president? (%)”

Source: Gallup, Semafor

Multiple reporters on Capitol Hill confirming that House Republican leadership will make a final decision on strategy for their government funding plan following a conference meeting at 12:30 ET 17:30 GMT.  

• Most reporters appear to agree that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to divide the package, torpedoed by President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk on Wednesday, into separate bills to be voted on independently.
• There is broad agreement that there will be a 'clean' Continuing Resolution to avert a shutdown, an aid bill for farmers, and a disaster relief supplemental.
• CNN reports there is likely to be a fourth bill to raise the federal debt ceiling - a key priority for Trump and his allies in Congress. Punchbowl News sources suggest there won't be a debt limit bill.
• It remains unclear if a vote can be held today, largely due to procedural technicalities, or if Johnson will be forced to wait until tomorrow for a voting session. Sarah Ferris at CNN notes: "Vibes shifting in the Capitol as members getting angrier by the hour and want to leave," suggesting that lawmakers will move quickly when a vote is scheduled. 

Following on from previous bullet US: Funding Likely To Be Split Into Multiple Bills, Govt Shutdown Risk Decreases

• Jake Sherman at Punchbowl confirms on X that votes will be held on a Continuing Resolution through March, disaster relief for storm-hit states, and a Farm Bill and assistance package.
• Sherman adds there will be no debt limit vote. As noted in our previous bullet there is unlikely to be sufficient support from House conservatives or Democrats for a bill to suspend the debt ceiling.
• It is currently unclear if House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) intends to hold the votes today under suspension of rules, requiring a two-thirds majority to pass. Or delay votes until tomorrow, after a technical government shutdown but before any fallout from the lapse in appropriations, when he could move the bills along party lines.